Euro zone money markets now fully price in one quarter-point European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike by year-end, compared with two hikes earlier in the day. Money market traders price in about 25% of a second quarter-point hike in 2026.

Mar 9, 2026, 3:40:51 PM UTC(3 hours ago)
Impact: High

Affected Assets

  • Euro zone money markets now fully price in one quarter-point European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike by year-end, compared with two hikes earlier in the day. Money market traders price in about 25% of a second quarter-point hike in 2026.
  • Euro zone money markets now fully price in one 0.25% ECB rate hike by the end of the year.
  • Earlier in the day, markets priced in two rate hikes.
  • Traders now price in a roughly 25% chance of a second 0.25% rate hike in 2026.
  • Recent market shifts reflect changing expectations, with some traders previously anticipating stable borrowing costs into 2027.

Sources

@DeItaone
From:@DeItaone
EURO ZONE MONEY MARKETS NOW ONLY FULLY PRICE IN ONE QUARTER-POINT ECB RATE HIKE BY YEAR-END, COMPARED WITH TWO HIKES EARLIER IN DAY MONEY MARKET TRADERS PRICE IN ABOUT 25% OF A SECOND QUARTER-POINT HIKE IN 2026
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Euro zone money markets now fully price in one quarter-point European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike by year-end, compared with two hikes earlier in the day. Money market traders price in about 25% of a second quarter-point hike in 2026. | Foxly Invest