German inflation hits 2.8 percent in March as Iran conflict drives energy shock

Mar 30, 2026, 12:44:21 PM UTC(8 hours ago)
Impact: High
German inflation hits 2.8 percent in March as Iran conflict drives energy shock

Affected Assets

  • Brent crude oil prices surged between 10 and 13 percent to reach approximately 82 dollars per barrel following the start of the conflict
  • The European Central Bank postponed planned interest rate reductions on March 19 and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6 percent
  • Market probability for an interest rate hike in 2026 jumped from 12 percent to 42 percent within two weeks of the war starting
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that businesses may raise prices faster than in previous crises due to recent memories of the 2022 inflation spike
  • Private sector output in the eurozone manufacturing and services sectors sank to a 10-month low in March according to S&P Global data

Sources

GERMAN INFLATION JUMPS ON ENERGY SHOCK German inflation rose to 2.8% in March, the highest in over a year, as energy prices climbed 7.2% due to the Iran war. The increase is adding pressure on the ECB to raise rates, with markets expecting a possible move as soon as April and up to three hikes this year. Officials remain cautious, but warn higher energy costs could push inflation further if the conflict continues.
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