- Supreme court tariff ruling could shake stocks.
- The Supreme Court is reviewing a case challenging the extent of presidential authority to impose tariffs.
- A ruling against the President could force the government to repay tariffs, potentially removing liquidity from the market.
- Uncertainty is heightened as the court could find a middle ground, curtailing presidential power without outright declaring tariffs illegal.
- Market experts are eyeing potential beneficiaries if tariffs are repealed, but outcomes are uncertain.
- Alternative legal mechanisms may allow for continued protectionism even if current tariffs are blocked.
Supreme court tariff ruling could shake stocks.
Feb 19, 2026, 5:50:14 PM UTC(4 hours ago)
Impact: MediumAffected Assets
Sources
From:@DeItaone
SUPREME COURT TARIFF RULING COULD SHAKE STOCKS
The U.S. Supreme Court may rule on tariffs this week, and JPMorgan’s trading desk predicts sharply different market outcomes:
• 64% chance: Tariffs struck down and immediately replaced → S&P 500 rises 0.1–0.2% after an initial 0.75–1% spike.
• 26% chance: Tariffs upheld → S&P 500 drops 0.3–0.5%, bigger yield curve moves.
• 9% chance: Tariffs struck down after midterms → S&P 500 +1.25–1.5%, Russell 2000 outperforms.
• 1% chance: Tariffs struck down with no replacement → S&P 500 +1.5–2%, Russell 2000 outperforms.
The U.S. collected $124B in tariff duties through January. Even if struck down, new levies could keep effective rates similar to 2025, limiting market gains.
