Speculation Surges Over Potential Tesla Merger with SpaceX/xAI Conglomerate

Feb 4, 2026 (21 hr ago)

Neutral

Renewed speculation centers on the potential merger of Tesla into the newly formed SpaceX/xAI entity following their recent consolidation.

Potential Structural Consolidation with Musk Empire

The combined SpaceX-xAI entity is now valued at $1.25 trillion following their recent merger1
Analyst Dan Ives suggests a growing probability that Tesla could eventually be merged into the SpaceX/xAI structure over time1
The probability of a "Tesla-SpaceX merger announced before June 30" has increased to 24% from previous mid-teen levels1, 3
Tesla currently holds an ownership stake in the pre-IPO xAI company, which could influence valuation dynamics2
Elon Musk's stated goal for the combined entity involves using space-based infrastructure for AI-driven applications1

Tesla introduced a new all-wheel-drive Model Y variant priced at $41,990 in the U.S. market4
European registration data shows patchy demand signals, with significant increases in some countries contrasting with declines in others5
The company has heavily utilized pricing adjustments and incentives following the discontinuation of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September6
Tesla's overall European market share contracted by 27% last year due to increased pressure from competitor BYD5

External governance perception risks are being monitored due to references to Elon Musk in the recently released Jeffrey Epstein files7
These headline risks can influence short-term investor sentiment and perceived risk premia associated with the company7