Tesla's California Robotaxi Ambitions Hit Zero Miles and Regulatory Wall

Feb 27, 2026 (17 hr ago)

Neutral

Tesla logged zero autonomous test miles in California in 2025, stalling critical robotaxi progress needed for future valuation drivers.

Robotaxi Testing Stagnation in Key Market

TSLA did not log any autonomous test-driving miles in California during 2025, marking the sixth straight year without reported activity in the state1
The company has not applied for permits beyond the entry-level license, which only permits testing with a human safety driver present1
California is considered very important to TSLA's robotaxi plans, which constitute a large part of the company's overall market value1
Draft state regulations require firms to log a minimum of 50,000 miles with a safety driver before seeking approval for driverless testing5
In contrast, Alphabet Inc.'s Waymo logged nearly 13 million miles before receiving permission to operate commercial autonomous services3

Tesla has formally withdrawn its previous forecast projecting 20 million annual vehicle deliveries by the year 20304
The company has also abandoned its guidance that targeted 50% annual delivery growth moving forward4
The current investment narrative for Tesla is now heavily focused on Artificial Intelligence, specifically the Optimus humanoid, autonomous driving, and robotaxis4

Cybertruck sales experienced a significant 48% year-over-year decrease, falling from 39,965 units in 2024 to 20,237 units in 20252
A limited-time price cut to $59,990 is being offered, with the subsequent price dependent on the demand generated during this promotional period2
Production capabilities for the Cybertruck have been substantially scaled back, now running at less than 10% of the original target of 250,000 units annually2

Despite the EV slowdown, Tesla's U.S. market share has increased to over 60% due to the decline of EV startups and reduced targets from legacy automakers4
A U.S. judge declined a motion to dismiss a proposed class action lawsuit alleging the company showed bias against U.S. citizens in its hiring practices5
Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson plans to sell 25,731 shares, an action valued at approximately $10.5 million5